Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Downside Risks Linger Despite China's Readiness for Talks

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Markets remain squarely focused on the U.S.-China trade tussle and headlines from both countries.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 during the Asian morning, with S&P 500 futures nursing a 2% loss after the U.S. lifted the total levy on the world's second-largest economy to 104%. The Australian dollar, a China-sensitive commodity currency, fell to a five-year low of 0.5913 against the greenback and the volatile U.S. Treasury market threatened a USD liquidity squeeze.

Sentiment improved somewhat after China's State Council Information Office released a white paper on the tensions that said Beijing is willing to communicate on issues and didn't mention fresh retaliatory taxes on U.S. imports. It soured some hours later after the Ministry of Finance raised tariffs to 84% from 34%, sending BTC, which had rallied to around $77,000, back

In any case, the sustainability of the recovery was always under question as China's comments beyond the headlines were tough and suggested the government was unlikely to blink any time soon. For instance, the document said China won't be bullied and the U.S. will need to show respect and equality if it wants to resolve the problem. The country will take measures to safeguard its rights and interests, it said.

Besides, persistent volatility in bonds, triggered by the supposed unwinding of carry trades and fears of sticky inflation, could work against a sustained recovery in the risk assets. A growing number of observers, including economist Nouriel Roubini, say markets are too optimistic in pricing an aggressive Fed easing, and central bank support will come only after President Donald Trump tempers his rhetoric. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said interest-rate hikes will continue if the economy improves as expected, adding the need to be alert to trade tensions.

In the broader crypto market, BlocScale, a launchpad to onboard projects and community-driven token introductions to XRP Ledger, continued to make waves, with strong uptake for the seed sale of its native token BLOC. “With over 35% of the seed sale allocation already claimed, BlocScale Launchpad is gaining significant traction from early-stage investors, developers, and XRP enthusiasts looking to be part of something groundbreaking,” it said.

The TRUMP token, associated with President Trump, traded at record lows near $7.5 in the wake of massive selling by whales early this week. It is now down 90% from its record high, with a $360 million unlock due later this month. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto:
    • April 9: The Mercury network upgrade gets applied to the Neutron (NTRN) mainnet, migrating it from Cosmos Hub's Interchain Security to a fully sovereign proof-of-stake network.
    • April 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on updating U.S. securities laws to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
    • April 10, 10:30 a.m.: Status conference for former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
    • April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading" in Washington.
  • Macro
    • April 9, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico's Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) releases March consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.48%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.65%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.77%
    • April 9, 11:30 a.m.: U.S. Senate to vote on ending the debate for Paul Atkins' nomination as SEC Chair. If invoked, confirmation vote at 7 p.m.
    • April 9, 12:01 p.m.: China's 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports take effect.
    • April 9, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the FOMC meeting held March 18-19.
    • April 9, 9:30 p.m.: China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
      • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.2%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.7%
      • PPI YoY Est. -2.3% vs. Prev. -2.2%
    • April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March consumer price inflation data.
      • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
      • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.2%
      • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • April 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended April 5.
      • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 223K vs. Prev. 219K
    • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Livestream link.
    • April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.
      • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
      • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
      • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%
    • April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

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