Bitcoin Rebounds to $85,500 After 10% Weekly Rally, But On-Chain Data Signals Caution

 The latest Bitcoin rebound has pushed the BTC price back above $84,000, recovering from this month’s dip to $74,000 and logging a solid 10% weekly gain. While this move has stirred optimism among investors, it hasn’t completely convinced analysts watching the current market trend. The big question on everyone’s mind: Is this the start of a proper comeback or just a short break in a more prolonged downturn?

New signals from on-chain data are starting to offer some insight. CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi points to a recovery in Bitcoin’s “Apparent Demand” metric, especially the 30-day sum, which is climbing back from hostile territory. It’s a potentially bullish sign that buyers are slowly returning. Still, Mevsimi cautions that the recent rebound hasn’t fully confirmed a reversal, drawing comparisons to 2021, when similar signs fizzled out and the BTC price stagnated in a long consolidation phase.

Adding to the cautiously optimistic outlook is a steady decline in Bitcoin inflows from short-term holders on Binance. According to analyst Darkfost, these inflows have dropped from 17,000 BTC in November to around 9,000 BTC now. With less selling pressure, there’s potential for price stability. However, whether this marks the start of accumulation or just a pause is still unclear. As the Bitcoin rebound gains attention, eyes are on the charts to see if the BTC market trend is truly turning a corner.

The 5-minute chart for the BTC price shows a shift from early volatility to a more defined upward move within an ascending channel. A sharp early rally pushed the RSI into overbought levels, followed by a swift correction that stabilized above $84,000. This support level held firm, with several bounce-backs from oversold RSI readings. MACD movements during this phase showed mixed signals, with alternating golden and death crosses suggesting hesitation in the BTC market trend. However, a series of higher lows hinted that bullish momentum was quietly building.

As trading advanced, Bitcoin stayed within a narrowing rising channel, inching toward resistance at $85,400. RSI again entered the overbought zone before a brief pullback, indicating some exhaustion. Nonetheless, the latest golden cross in the MACD combined with the bounce that we just saw near $85,200 has confirmed there is new bullish momentum. We also note that a solid break above $85,200 suggests continued buying intensity. At the moment, the price of BTC is oscillating around $85,600 and $85,800, indicating yet more upside if this continues with momentum.

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has definitely brought some optimism back into the market. On-chain data shows reduced short-term selling and improving demand, adding weight to the possibility of a sustained move. Technically, the breakout above $85,400 and firm support at $85,200 both point to a potentially bullish BTC market trend. Still, a short pullback wouldn’t be surprising with the RSI nearing overbought levels again. Traders should closely watch these levels for potential price swings as Bitcoin continues to react to macroeconomic factors and broader market trends

The sharp collapse in Mantra (OM) token’s price has ignited serious concerns among crypto investors, many of whom believe the crash was not a natural market event. Accusations of a coordinated pump-and-dump scheme are mounting, with fingers pointed at market makers and centralized exchanges (CEXs) for artificially inflating the token’s value before dumping it.

Investor Anon Vee was among the first to publicly question the legitimacy of OM’s price rally, suggesting it bore the hallmarks of a deliberate setup. He argued that projects often collaborate with market makers to manipulate prices, especially when insiders hold most of the token supply. Drawing parallels to the Tellor (TRB) case, he warned of recurring patterns in crypto markets where such manipulations leave retail investors bearing the brunt.

Crypto analyst Leonidas echoed these suspicions, pointing to Binance and other major exchanges that heavily promoted OM leading up to the crash. “CEXs teamed up with market makers to push the price up, attract retail investors, and then sell off at the top,” he alleged.

The fallout has been devastating for some. One investor reportedly watched his $3.5 million portfolio dwindle to a mere $200,000 within hours. These dramatic losses have reignited the discussion about liquidity risks in the cryptocurrency space.

Arthur, founder of DeFiance Capital, expressed concern over the fragile nature of liquidity in crypto markets. He emphasized that without clearer rules and more transparency, similar market events could continue to erode investor trust.

In response to the backlash, Mantra co-founder John Mullin attempted to clarify the situation. He claimed that the crash was triggered by “forced closures” on certain exchanges during a period of extremely low liquidity, not insider manipulation.

However, his statement did little to calm investor fears. Many remain convinced that the events surrounding OM’s rise and fall were too calculated to be coincidental. Crypto trader Duo Nine suggested that either a rogue market maker or an insider triggered a sell-off far exceeding available liquidity.

Cryptocurrencies fall under Inland Revenue Board Malaysia (IRBM or LHDN) management through the Income Tax Act 1967 (ITA). The government regulates cryptocurrencies only as possession items and not as official money. IRBM relies on a “badges of trade” framework to figure out whether crypto activities are investment (non-taxable) or trading (taxable). Cryptocurrencies are not considered as currency by Bank Negara Malaysia and the Securities Commission Malaysia but as investment assets. As of now, there are no crypto-specific tax laws but general tax principles continue to apply to crypto transactions.

Crypto trading losses can only offset profits from trading, not other income types. Capital losses from investments are not deductible, as capital gains are not taxed. For businesses, allowable deductions include expenses directly incurred for generating income, like trading fees and platform costs. General business tax incentives may apply if criteria under the ITA are met.

The IRBM monitors crypto activity through data-sharing with licensed exchanges like Luno, MX Global, Tokenize Technology, and SINEGY. It also uses blockchain analytics tools to trace wallet addresses and transaction history. In 2020, Luno’s account was frozen during a tax investigation, reflecting the seriousness of enforcement.

Malaysia’s tax system for crypto is still evolving. While it currently offers favorable treatment for long-term investors, the IRBM may introduce clearer rules or new tax measures. While the government is open to digital innovation and blockchain, they are also slowly becoming stricter with reporting requirements and new obligations for both individuals and businesses.

The taxation in Malaysia is focused on the earnings from trading, mining, or staking of crypto, which are taxable as income, while capital gains from crypto are tax-free. It is important to keep records and report in a timely manner. Compliance is a way for taxpayers who want to stay on the right side of LHDN’s regulations and be granted safe by legal risks. Seeking professional advice in order to catch up with crypto tax obligation changes in policy might be favorable.

The latest behavior of the market shows that ADA has witnessed a buying pressure surge. A crossover above the 20-day EMA tends to show that bulls are taking over and that the asset may be entering a new uptrend. This is supported in the case of Cardano by the apparent build-up of short-term bullish momentum.

A violation of this technical level would not only confirm the bullish reversal but also bring in additional traders and investors who use technical signals for entry points.

Underpinning the technical view are fundamental on-chain indicators. As per blockchain analytics portal Santiment, Cardano’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) has gone negative of late. This indicator detects if present holders are in profit or loss depending on the last moving price of their tokens.

A negative NPL indicates that the majority of ADA holders are at a loss right now. In the past, this deters additional selling, as investors sit on assets to not lock in losses. This tendency results in less supply on the market, tightening the available tokens and potentially forcing prices upward.

Another bullish signal comes from Cardano’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-weighted indicator that tracks capital inflows and outflows. Currently, the CMF sits at 0.04, which indicates that more money is flowing into ADA than out of it.

A positive CMF reinforces the view that investors are accumulating the token rather than selling, a critical factor that supports continued upward momentum. This indicator suggests that the recent rally is supported by genuine investor interest and not just short-term speculation.